Probability

It's a funny old world, and one of the most profound challenges we (few?) sentient beings face, is making sense of it. Of the many constructs we use to help us with that task, probability is perhaps one of the most ubiquitous. From the likelihood of our death (1 in 5 for heart disease, 1 in 246 for falling down, 1 in 60,000 by tornado) to our understanding of the elementary particles that make up the universe (quantum mechanics predicts only the likelihood of a given particle's position or velocity) probability seems to be everywhere.

By knowing the risks, our reasoning goes, we can make decisions that avoid certain fates, and the estimation of risk is the essence of that highly profitable industry, insurance. And yet, we are constantly confronted with the occurrence of what - seem to us at least - to be highly unlikely events. So how do we reconcile our experience with the seemingly all powerful 'gods of odds'?

Einstein famously remarked, "I am convinced that God does not play dice". Perhaps Einstein was missing the point though - maybe life is just God's hobby. According to Oxford professor Nick Bostrom, the likelihood that we - all human life on earth - are simply part of a big computer simulation stand at around 1 in 5. Returning to dice, that's just better odds than rolling a six on your first try. For more on this fascinating, if slightly disconcerting, idea read on here.

- Mr. Ed

Image: JM http://www.logodesignweb.com/stockphoto